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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still