Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
